Author: Ruari Phipps, Sustainability Consultant, Flotilla
A week ago today, the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan, with over 50,000 political, corporate, and third-sector representatives attending. This is a conference of critical importance, coming at the end of a year that has seen a string of climate-induced natural disasters and insufficient progress toward global decarbonisation targets. There is always a mixture of hope and apprehension surrounding COP, with some previous conferences delivering landmark progress, like the Paris Agreement at COP21, and others falling short, such as COP28, which was criticised for not delivering the strong enough outcomes for the phase out of fossil fuels. COP29 has been nicknamed the “finance COP”, as delegates are expected to reach an agreement on how developed nations can support developing nations with adequate financing to both decarbonise and adapt to climate change.
With the first week of the conference behind us now, and Week 2 beginning today, we’ve highlighted some of the key talking points from Week 1:
1. Nations Updated Their Climate Action Plans
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the climate action plans that countries submit to the United Nations, outlining how they intend to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. Week 1 saw four nations provide updates on their NDCs:
- The United Kingdom increased ambition: On the second day of negotiations, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that by 2035, the UK will reduce emissions by 81% compared to 1990 levels, an increase of 3% from its previous target.
- Indonesia set out its plans: Indonesia’s Environment Director said the country will bring national emissions targets to the provincial level starting next year, promoting a more integrated approach to climate action. Indonesia is targeting Net Zero by 2060 or sooner.
- Brazil and the UAE increased ambition, but not by enough: Brazil announced a new commitment to cut emissions by 67% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels, up from the previous target of 59% by 2035. The UAE committed to cutting emissions by 47% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. However, neither of these NDCs contains sufficient commitment to phase out oil and gas production and align with the 1.5°C warming target.
2. Progress Toward a Global Carbon Market
On Day 1 of negotiations, a centralised carbon trading mechanism was adopted, creating a path for a global carbon market that was originally set out in the Paris Agreement at COP21 in 2015. This market will allow countries and companies to buy credits from nations or projects that remove GHG emissions from the atmosphere, such as peatland restoration or rainforest protection projects. The market will be overseen by the UN and should allow nations with key natural ecosystems, like rainforests, to generate international income by protecting and restoring those ecosystems. The mechanism was coupled with the approval of three methodologies for issuing verified carbon credits for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing nations (REDD+). Reactions have been mixed: nature-based NGOs have welcomed this new funding route for climate solutions, but others have criticised the deal as a “backdoor deal” made without proper discussion or negotiation.
3. The Three Energy Pledges
On “Energy Day” three significant pledges were made around the clean energy transition:
- The Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge: This pledge aims to increase global energy storage by six times, up to 1500 GW, and expand grid infrastructure by 2030. This is crucial for the global goal to triple renewables by 2030 and decarbonise the power sector.
- The Green Energy Zones and Corridors Pledge: This pledge seeks to establish regional and international cooperation on renewable energy expansion, including transitional infrastructure for regional power. While promising, it is expected that the fossil fuel industry will try to use this pledge to expand gas networks, a development that must be avoided.
- The Hydrogen Declaration: This pledge aims to launch a global clean hydrogen market, which would increase global access to green hydrogen—a key technology for decarbonising industrial and transport sectors, e.g. for heavy goods vehicles. The cost of green hydrogen is expected to decrease as global renewable capacity increases and with rapid expansion of the renewables sector, particularly from China, this technology will soon become more viable. However, despite its promise, green hydrogen should not be viewed as a “silver bullet” technology that can replace the need to phase out fossil fuels.
4. Groundwork laid for Climate Finance Progress
In Week 1, the first drafts of the National Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on finance were released, linking climate finance to biodiversity, land use, and sustainable development. Leading up to COP29, NCQG discussions have sparked widespread disagreement among participating nations. Developing nations are looking to high-income countries for support, while developed nations want to include private corporations and emerging economies, such as China, in the discussion. The focus of Week 2 will be on reaching an agreement on the structure, timeline, and, most critically, the amount of funding to be provided.
Keep an eye out next week as we wrap up the outcomes from Week 2 and reflect on the progress and shortcomings of this critical conference.
